Two of my favorite “must reads” on my bedside table at the beginning of each year are The Economist’s “The World in 2011” and advertising agency J. Walter Thompson’s annual “Our Things to Watch in 2011.”
Each are filled with predictions and trends, both serious and frivolous. In the serious category:
-The fiscal crisis in almost every country with notable exceptions like Germany and Canada, will create a push on all governments to reduce deficits. The danger comes from cutting too much too soon; the opportunity is a hard look at how we spend money and the quality of services received. -There will be a wave of foreign investment from America and Europe into the developing nations: Asia, Latin America and Africa.
-Attention to climate change and greening. New York City has already run pilot programs and hopes to have comprehensive plans by the end of this year. Propelling efforts is the fact that the world’s population will reach 7 billion this year. While the human population took 250,000 years to reach 1 billion in 1800, it now takes only one dozen years to increase by another billion. The good news is that the total fertility rate (the number of children a woman can be expected to have) is falling in many countries).
-House prices will slip by another 2 percent, and China will become the world’s second largest market for commercial real estate. India’s economy will be in a race with China.
-Although IBM will celebrate its 100th birthday this June, many other large companies have failed. The ones that remain will be the ones that have the agility to respond to our fast-changing market conditions and technology.
-It may be a long goodbye for the current boomer generation, the first crop of which just reached 65 this year. With both the stock market and housing prices less lucrative than in the past, coupled with increased longevity, many are putting off retirement and continuing to work.
-On the frivolous side, among J. Walter Thompson’s list of 100 things to watch, I was fascinated by No. 94, which stated that toilet paper was undergoing a big change. Kimberly Clark is coming out with a tube-free version. Does this mean we will dispense with our toilet paper dispensers? We will just have to wait and see.
-No. 98 explored the use of virtual mirrors in which a customers image is displayed by a camera on a screen which then overlays types of makeup, allowing previews of products and testing of styles of clothes. The cosmetic company Shiseido is rolling out virtual mirrors in European department stores, and here in America they will be available at Macy’s, New York. (I can’t help wondering if some cheating might be possible, making you look better on the image than you really would).
-The over-all fashion forecast is that all shades of green will gain in popularity, while violet will now be passe. Smaller handbags will be in vogue, although I’ll bet that many women, like myself, will remain loyal to larger bags with several divisions.
-Podiatrists will be sad to learn that more sensible shoes with lower heels will come into vogue, and there will be a revival of the Grace Kelly head scarf, not so different from the “hijab” (a head scarf worn by Muslim women). Price increases in raw cotton will mean higher prices on many consumer goods.
-Two deaths to report are the demise of a cultural icon as Sony is discontinuing its Walkman audio cassette player and on the way out is the incandescent bulb — already absent from shops in Australia and Brazil and soon to die out in this country. However, Michael Jackson lives on with many posthumous appearances, a newly released album and Cirque du Soleil’s “Michael Jackson, The Immortal World Tour” opens in Montreal this fall.
-Of course, we already are aware that Oprah Winfrey has her own network, OWN, dedicated to self-improvement, personal transformation and entertainment. Will audiences be interested in “master classes” and learning or will they prefer Snooki and the Kardashians and other equally tasteless reality shows?
-A new page for book lovers as more books will be available directly on new devices: e readers, iPads and smart phones. Parents can now record their voices reading stories to their children. Reading, which hasn’t changed much in several hundred years is about to change dramatically.
-Smart phones will overtake standard mobile, YouTube will become a broadcasting channel and social networking will receive increased surveillance. Studies also indicate that people require “digital downtime” to relieve stress and new digital etiquette rules will develop around digital decorum.
More people may question how much information really needs to be made widely available, and some might just conclude that ignorance is bliss. As to the answers, only time will tell.
Contact Jean Cherni, founder of the retirement advisory service, Senior Living Solutions, at jeancherni@sbcglobal.net or 15 The Ponds at Hotchkiss Grove, Branford 06405.
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